Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 0.021525 0.024452 0.027642 0.031378 0.035639 0.040348 0.045952
2025-03-02 0.016537 0.020442 0.025081 0.031004 0.038381 0.047285 0.058877
2025-03-09 0.014203 0.018594 0.024122 0.031609 0.041518 0.054226 0.071831
2025-03-16 0.012233 0.016777 0.022774 0.031297 0.043150 0.059125 0.082419
2025-03-23 0.011165 0.015944 0.022518 0.032261 0.046413 0.066339 0.096736
2025-03-30 0.009726 0.014390 0.021040 0.031268 0.046702 0.069289 0.105149
2025-04-06 0.008703 0.013298 0.020070 0.030843 0.047681 0.073210 0.115262
2025-04-13 0.007663 0.012058 0.018733 0.029683 0.047356 0.075035 0.122199
2025-04-20 0.007263 0.011757 0.018782 0.030656 0.050425 0.082378 0.138647
2025-04-27 0.006866 0.011413 0.018718 0.031414 0.053183 0.089428 0.155275
2025-05-04 0.006549 0.011165 0.018773 0.032356 0.056305 0.097331 0.174120
2025-05-11 0.006047 0.010552 0.018160 0.032082 0.057277 0.101597 0.186899
2025-05-18 0.005647 0.010090 0.017778 0.032207 0.059017 0.107470 0.203417
2025-05-25 0.005198 0.009502 0.017124 0.031780 0.059715 0.111534 0.217004
2025-06-01 0.004950 0.009252 0.017049 0.032403 0.062416 0.119537 0.239012
2025-06-08 0.004596 0.008773 0.016506 0.032083 0.063258 0.124049 0.254509
2025-06-15 0.004442 0.008659 0.016637 0.033072 0.066757 0.134064 0.282300
2025-06-22 0.004061 0.008068 0.015798 0.032052 0.066097 0.135652 0.292506
2025-06-29 0.003782 0.007656 0.015273 0.031617 0.066587 0.139618 0.308202
2025-07-06 0.003448 0.007103 0.014422 0.030426 0.065365 0.139854 0.315648
2025-07-13 0.003364 0.007058 0.014600 0.031425 0.068946 0.150721 0.348292
2025-07-20 0.003262 0.006968 0.014674 0.032203 0.072111 0.160959 0.380576
2025-07-27 0.003182 0.006917 0.014828 0.033170 0.075785 0.172676 0.417634